How the math works
Selling raw gets you the raw price minus selling fees. Grading gets you whatever the slab sells for minus selling fees, and you've paid the grading fee, shipping and insurance up front no matter what grade comes back.
Because you don't know the grade in advance, the calculator weights each outcome by how likely you think it is. That's the expected value: what grading pays on average if you submitted many cards like this one. The difference between that and the raw sale is your expected gain.
The gem rate that breaks even
The number most collectors underestimate is how often a card actually comes back a 10. The break-even gem rate tells you how often a 10 has to happen for grading to beat selling raw, keeping your mix of 9s, 8s and lower grades the same. If that rate is higher than the card's real-world gem rate, grading is a bet you'll usually lose.
Ways to pick better chances
- Check the population report for the card. The share of graded copies that are 10s is a decent starting point, though it skews high because people only send their best copies.
- Measure centering first with the centering calculator. A card that's off-center can't reach a 10, so set its gem chance to zero.
- Look at corners and surface under a bright light and a loupe. Any visible print line or soft corner moves chance from 10 down to 9 or 8.
Questions
Where do I find what each grade sells for?
Use sold listings, not asking prices. Filter eBay to sold items for the exact card and grade, and use a recent average instead of the highest sale.
Should I include the cost of my time?
Add it under other costs if you want a true picture. Prep, packing and the wait for the cards to come back all count, especially on lower-value cards.